TRACKER LAUNCH DATE ASTRONOMY SPACEX CONTROVERSY FAQ REFLECT ORBITAL
T-MINUS · EARENDIL-1
TARGET 2026 · MID-YEAR
STATUS FCC APPROVAL PENDING
LAST SYNC 19 APR 2026
◈ ORBITAL ILLUMINATION · INDEPENDENT MISSION DOSSIER · LIVE

EARENDIL-1 The First Commercial Space Mirror

EARENDIL-1 LIVE MISSION STATUS PRE-LAUNCH · NO MIRROR IN ORBIT
FILED
FCC LICENCE
Aug 2025 · decision pending
·
MID 2026
LAUNCH WINDOW
Falcon 9 secured
·
45%
LAUNCH CONFIDENCE
1,800+ FCC objections
·
LAST UPDATE
Live from /earendil-1
EARENDIL-1 is the first commercial space mirror satellite, developed by Reflect Orbital and targeting a mid-2026 launch to Low Earth Orbit. FCC licence filed August 2025, decision pending. No specific launch date has been announced. This status will update when Reflect Orbital confirms a date or the FCC rules on the application.
Why no countdown? Reflect Orbital has publicly targeted mid-2026 but hasn’t announced a specific launch date, and FCC approval is still pending. We’d rather show you real status than a countdown to an invented date. The countdown activates the moment a real launch date is confirmed. Read the full launch-date analysis →
TOTAL RAISED
$35.2M
Seed (Sequoia) + Series A (Lux) + USAF SBIR II
SERVICE REQUESTS
260K+
Construction, events, military, disaster relief
MIRROR SPEC
18×18m
Mylar film, 16 kg, origami-folding deployment
OPPOSITION FILED
3
RAS · AAS · DarkSky International
EARENDIL-1 · MID-2026 TARGET HISTORY SINCE 1993 ASTRONOMERS: “CATASTROPHIC” INDEPENDENT · NOT AFFILIATED

The Orbital Mirror Concept — End to End

SUN EARTH 625km ~5km FOOTPRINT EÄRENDIL-1 SSO · 625km · 97min ORBITALSOLAR.AI · NOT AFFILIATED WITH REFLECT ORBITAL
3.5 min
PER PASS
5km
BEAM FOOTPRINT
mag ~−4
PEAK BRIGHTNESS
625km
ORBIT ALTITUDE

Every Orbital Mirror — All Operators

MISSIONOPERATORYEARSIZEORBITBRIGHTNESSPURPOSESTATUS
Znamya 2RSC Energia · Russia199320m dia.LEO ~400km
Mag ~3–5 sky · ~Full moon in beam
Urban illumination demoHISTORICAL
Znamya 2.5RSC Energia · Russia199925m dia.LEO ~400km
Target: 5–10× full moon in beam
Urban illumination (failed)FAILED
EARENDIL-1Reflect Orbital · USA2026 target18×18mSSO 625km
Venus-bright overhead · Moon-bright in beam
Solar farm augmentation, demoPENDING LAUNCH
Chengdu Space MirrorCASC · China2018 proposal~1km² constellationLEO ~500km
8× Moon (claimed)
Street lighting replacementSHELVED
Phase 2 ConstellationReflect Orbital · USA2027–28 plan18×18m ×dozensSSO 625km
Multi-mirror stacking
Coordinated solar augmentationPLANNED
Full ConstellationReflect Orbital · USA2030 → long-term18×18m ×4,000 → 50,000SSO 625km
20% midday sun
On-demand solar power deliveryASPIRATIONAL

BRIGHTNESS NOTES: Mirrors produce two distinct brightness measurements. The first is how bright the satellite itself appears as a point of light in the sky to any observer within viewing range (stated as astronomical magnitude). The second is how bright the 5km ground footprint becomes for observers inside the beam (stated relative to the full moon). Znamya-2's satellite appeared faint (mag ~3–5) as it streaked past, while the ground footprint within the beam reached approximately full-moon brightness.

UPDATED APR 2026 · SOURCE: PUBLIC FCC FILINGS, PUBLISHED RESEARCH, PRESS RECORDS

What Does a Mirror Pass Actually Look Like?

EARENDIL-1 · GROUND OBSERVER EXPERIENCEBASED ON FCC FILING + REFLECT ORBITAL STATEMENTS

You'd first notice it as a fast-moving star appearing low on the horizon — similar to watching the ISS pass, but brighter. It climbs quickly across the sky over roughly 3–4 minutes, reaching peak brightness near its highest point above you.

At zenith, EARENDIL-1 is expected to appear comparable to Venus at its brightest — obvious to the naked eye, visible in twilight, and bright enough to be unmistakable. It moves visibly across the sky rather than hovering like a planet.

If you're standing within the 5km illuminated footprint on the ground, the experience is different: a soft, directional glow — described by Reflect Orbital as "moon-like" — brightens the scene around you for the duration of the pass. Independent researchers describe the in-beam brightness as comparable to a full moon at 0.1 lux.

PASS PARAMETERS · EARENDIL-1
~3.5
MINUTES PER PASS
5km
BEAM FOOTPRINT
7.6km/s
GROUND TRACK SPEED
0.1 lux
IN-BEAM BRIGHTNESS
OUTSIDE THE BEAM: visible as a bright star (Venus-equivalent) moving across the sky
INSIDE THE BEAM: soft full-moon-equivalent glow, ~0.1 lux, for the pass duration
AFTER THE PASS: mirror tilts away from Earth — satellite dims or disappears
Pass predictions for your exact location → OrbitalNodes.ai · Solar mirror mode launching with EARENDIL-1 · More detail → /how-bright

The Physics, the Promise, and the Controversy

1993FIRST MIRROR LAUNCHED
3PROGRAMMES TRACKED
0CURRENTLY IN ORBIT
4K→50KREFLECT ORBITAL (2030 → LONG-TERM)
WHY THE PHYSICS ARE HARD

An 18×18m mirror is only the size of a volleyball court. From 625km altitude, achieving meaningful illumination over a 5km target requires milliradian-precision beam steering while the satellite travels at 7.6km/s. Any single pass lasts under 4 minutes.

Delivering one continuous hour of supplemental light requires approximately 15 coordinated satellites. Znamya 2 proved the concept in 1993. Znamya 2.5 showed how quickly a mirror deployment can fail. The Chengdu proposal demonstrated the public appetite — and the backlash — this technology generates regardless of which operator pursues it.

→ FULL CONTROVERSY ANALYSIS
STAKEHOLDER POSITIONS — ORBITAL MIRRORS
Qualitative positions as of April 2026, sourced from public filings, press statements, and funding rounds. We don’t invent percentages.
ASTRONOMER COMMUNITYOPPOSED
American Astronomical Society filed a formal petition to deny the FCC application (6 March 2026). 1,800+ FCC docket comments filed. DarkSky International classified EARENDIL-1 as Risk Group 3 (High Risk).
INVESTOR BACKINGCOMMITTED
$35.2M raised across Seed (Sequoia Capital, Sep 2024) and Series A (Lux Capital, May 2025). Plus US Air Force SBIR Phase II contract of $1.25M (Jun 2025). Demo mission fully funded per FCC filing.
PUBLIC DEMAND SIGNALSTRONG
260,000+ service enquiries across 157 countries by end of 2025, per Reflect Orbital. No independent survey of general public opinion exists.
DEMO-SCALE TECH VIABILITYPLAUSIBLE
March 2024 balloon demo at 3km successfully redirected sunlight to ground solar panels during twilight. Scaling to 625km orbit with milliradian beam steering remains unproven in flight.
FULL 50K CONSTELLATIONSPECULATIVE
No operator has deployed a constellation at this scale. Astronomers calculate 3,000+ mirrors needed to replicate 20% of midday sunlight at a single site. Economics and manufacturing cadence both unvalidated.
REGULATORY STATUSPENDING
FCC application SAT-LOA-20250701-00129 filed 1 August 2025. Public comment period closed 9 March 2026. No decision issued. No deadline for FCC to rule.

When Will the Next Mirror Launch?

EARENDIL-1
REFLECT ORBITAL · SUN-SYNCHRONOUS ORBIT · 625KM
The first commercial orbital mirror and the first mirror since Znamya 2.5 in 1999. An 18×18m mylar mirror targeting solar farm energy augmentation. FCC filing cited early April 2026; Wikipedia (updated Apr 2026) states mid-2026. SpaceX Falcon 9 confirmed as launch provider. FCC approval remains the primary gate.
LAUNCH CONFIDENCEMODERATE ~45%
TARGET WINDOW
MID
2026
FCC FILED: AUG 2025
LAUNCH VEHICLE: SPACEX FALCON 9
UPDATED: APR 2026
NO OTHER OPERATORS have announced firm launch timelines as of April 2026. The Chengdu proposal remains shelved with no known revival. This page updates when new filings are made by any operator.

Track Mirror Passes in Real Time

Live Orbital Mirror Tracking via OrbitalNodes.AI

Once any orbital mirror launches, OrbitalNodes will be the first place to see predicted pass times, illumination windows, and beam targets — all operators, live in your browser.

◈ GO TO ORBITALNODES.AI Solar Mirrors Toggle COMING SOON
MIRROR PASSES
Pass predictions with illumination angle — all operators
PASS CARDS
Shareable cards showing your local pass window and beam target
ALERTS
Get notified 30 minutes before a mirror pass over your location

How Much Orbital Sunlight Is Actually Worth

SOLAR FARM PARAMETERSINTERACTIVE
◈ DAILY ECONOMICS — ORBITAL MIRROR SCENARIO
USABLE SUNLIGHT PER PASS3.5 min
TOTAL MIRROR-MINUTES / DAY28 min
EFFECTIVE GENERATION ADDED18,667 kWh
ENERGY REVENUE / DAY$2,800
SERVICE COST / DAY$1,400
NET DAILY P&L+$1,400
Illustrative at operator-pitched rates. Drag sliders to stress-test the economics — try a 50MW farm or $10,000/hr service price to see when the model breaks.

Orbital Mirror Coverage — All Sources

ASTROBITES
FCC Under Pressure: Reflect Orbital and AI Satellite Proposals Trigger Astronomy Community Alert
FCC public comment period closed March 2026. DarkSky International published a step-by-step guide for submitting objections — open to non-US citizens. Astrobites analysis notes EARENDIL-1 could appear as bright as a full Moon within the beam footprint.
CRITICAL · FEB 2026
FEB 2026
SPACE.COM
4,000 Giant Space Mirrors Plan Has Scientists Alarmed
Reflect Orbital's FCC application describes EARENDIL-1: an 18×18m mirror in sun-synchronous orbit. Each illumination footprint spans 5km and lasts under 4 minutes. Astronomers warn of "catastrophic" consequences for observation.
CRITICAL
OCT 2025
SCI. AMERICAN
Alarm Grows Over Proposed Giant Mirrors in Orbit
Backed by Sequoia and Baiju Bhatt, Reflect Orbital sells "unforgettable sunlit evenings" to entertainment venues alongside solar energy contracts. The IAU and dark-sky advocacy groups have filed formal objections with the FCC.
SKEPTICAL
NOV 2025
LIVE SCIENCE
"Catastrophic and Horrifying" — Astronomers Warn on Space Mirror Plans
Runaway tumbling risk cited — NASA's solar sail spun uncontrollably in 2024. The Znamya 2 precedent (1993 success, 1999 failure) shows how quickly deployment can fail. A single uncontrolled mirror could flash brighter than the Moon over vast areas.
STRONGLY CRITICAL
OCT 2025
SMITHSONIAN
Giant Mirrors Could Bring Sunlight After Dark — Astronomers Concerned
Balanced coverage of the concept's claimed benefits — solar augmentation, SAD treatment, search and rescue, military illumination — alongside substantive expert concerns about light pollution and ecosystem disruption.
BALANCED
DEC 2025

The Complete Timeline of Orbital Mirrors

1993 · RUSSIA
Znamya 2 — First Success
RSC Energia's Progress M-15 spacecraft deployed a 20m mylar mirror from the Mir space station. It created a brief 5km-wide spot of light sweeping across Europe — the first proof that orbital illumination was physically possible. At magnitude ~5, it was barely visible to the naked eye: a faint, fast-moving point of light, not a dramatic flash. The mirror itself was the achievement; the brightness was modest.
RSC ENERGIAMIR STATIONSUCCESS
1999 · RUSSIA
Znamya 2.5 — Deployment Failure
A larger 25m mirror launched with ambitions to illuminate Russian cities through polar winter. The mirror snagged on an antenna during deployment, failed to fully unfurl, and the mission was abandoned. The Znamya programme was cancelled. No further Russian orbital mirror attempts followed.
DEPLOYMENT FAILUREPROGRAMME ENDED
2018 · CHINA
Chengdu "Artificial Moon" Proposal
Chengdu Aerospace Science announced plans for a constellation of mirrors to replace street lighting across Chengdu — claiming 8× Moon brightness and 1.2 billion yuan in annual savings. Generated global media coverage and immediate astronomer backlash. The project was quietly shelved; no satellites were built.
CHINASHELVEDURBAN LIGHTING
2021–2025 · USA
Reflect Orbital — Founded & Funded
Reflect Orbital founded October 2021 by Ben Nowack (ex-SpaceX) and Tristan Semmelhack (ex-Zipline). Raised $6.5M seed in September 2024 (led by Sequoia), then $20M Series A in May 2025 (led by Lux Capital with Sequoia participating), plus $1.25M US Air Force SBIR Phase II contract in June 2025 — total funding $35.2M as of 2026. Filed FCC application in August 2025. Two proof-of-concept missions planned for 2026. SpaceX Falcon 9 confirmed as launch provider.
FOUNDED 2021$35M TOTAL FUNDINGUSAF CONTRACT
MID-2026 · USA · NEXT
EARENDIL-1 — Demo Launch Target
18×18m mylar mirror targeting SSO at 625km. If deployed, the first operational orbital mirror since Znamya 2 — and the first commercial one. FCC approval pending. Each pass delivers under 4 minutes of supplemental illumination over a 5km footprint at brightness exceeding Venus.
SSO 625KMFCC PENDINGNEXT LAUNCH
2027–2030 · PLANNED
Phase 2 Constellation — 4,000 Mirrors by 2030
Reflect Orbital's 2030 target: 4,000 mirrors in coordinated sun-synchronous orbits delivering 20% of midday sun intensity on demand. The long-term commercial vision scales toward 50,000 satellites. Physics are severe — even at 4,000 mirrors the constellation serves only a limited number of locations simultaneously, and each mirror must achieve milliradian-precision steering at 7.6km/s.
4,000 BY 203050,000 LONG-TERM20% MIDDAY SUN
→ FULL HISTORY PAGE WITH PRIMARY SOURCES

Pass Predictions by City

Local pass prediction pages launch once any orbital mirror achieves orbit. Pages are pre-built for major cities and ready to populate with live data.